On Mon, 2003-12-01 at 22:37, Christopher Dawkins wrote:
[quotes not fully attributed as I have edited them]
How does open source get created. Where do these people get the time?
If you don't know the answer to that question then you shouldn't be on this list
I am on this list ;-) I still don't know the answer.
The list is open to all. I am sure Colin actually knows the answer, although it took me many years to work it out. I wrote a private paper last year in an (unsuccessful) attempt to explain it to someone who I wanted to persuade to make his software available for free. What I wrote is on
http://www.felsted.essex.sch.uk/~cchd/software.html
and I reckon the dynamics are unstoppable for items of sofware small enough to be encompassed by one person. I still do not completely understand how the economics are sustainable in the long term for large items (such as Linux, Apache, Mozilla and OpenOffice) that need a team of full-time programmers.
I think these are sustainable quite easily by the large corporates and governments who depend on them. Its taking time but the evidence is that we are well on the way to the transition between 2) and 3) below. "Like all revolutionary new ideas, the subject has had to pass through three stages, which may be summed up by these reactions: 1)'It's crazy - don't waste my time'; 2)'It's possible, but it's not worth doing'; 3)'I always said it was a good idea.'" (from Clarke's 1968 address to the 4th International Symposium on Bioastronautics and the Exploration of Space. When China say they intend to install 200 million Linux desktops, I doubt there will be a shortage of Linux development. When some government wakes up and realises putting £1m into OpenOffice.org development to fill any functional gaps that schools needs is better value than spending £100m on ELCs because it will actually save more money than the investment we will know we are into stage 3. Colin asked what features were in OpenSource assuming they will be lacking compared to MS products. Yes there are gaps, but also OO.o for example is superior in a number of ways to MS Office now eg direct export to Flash and Pdf, a generally agreed style editor that is better, an Open XML file format, available cross-platform. In fact adding any must have features is relatively in expensive in terms of DfES spending so why not just implement them and let everyone benefit? We need to win political hearts and minds, not just expect "the market to provide" when we all know that the market is so distorted all it can deliver without intervention is more of the same. Instead of just sitting wringing our hands let's put pressure on the DfES for change. I have had several questions asked in Parliament, started action against MSSA with the OFT, had a meeting with my EuroMP who came to my house to discuss software patents, got BECTa in touch with several sites for their (silly) TCO evaluations etc. If I can do it you can and if you believe that we would be better off with open standards make the effort. Everyone on this list could come to the FLOSSIE conference and encourage others to do so. There will be influential people there and they need to see and hear the arguments from people who understand the issues. Things are not going to change over night but clearly there is progress across the globe.
But there is no evidence that the Microsoft model is sustainable in the long term, either - indeed, there are several likely calamity scenarios for that model anyway.
Microsoft themselves will survive on their cash reserves for decades but it only takes Windows or Office to collapse to decimate their profitability. There really is very little new in Office 2003 which is evidence that the software is mature and isn't going anywhere. Why bother upgrading from Office 97/2000/XP if there is no particular functional advantage and there isn't any for most users. If you look at the development plan for OO.o 2.0 due next year then say give it another year of development, by 2005 it could well be that even the most sceptical die hard will have to admit OO.o is more than a match for MS Office and it will be free, open file format and cross platform. Look at the rate of change not what is here now if you want a vision for the future.
Christopher Dawkins, Felsted School, Dunmow, Essex CM6 3JG 01371-822698, mobile 07816 821659 cchd@felsted.essex.sch.uk -- ian