Stephan Kulow wrote:

Hi,

I updated my scripts to rescan the last 8 weeks of apache logs for 11.2 data (it took less than 3 days - we're talking 15G of compressed apache that needs to be evaluated and my poor workstation is doing alot of other stuff :)

http://en.opensuse.org/Statistics now has preliminary 11.2 data (I will reset them when 11.2 is out, for now the goal is to test the statistics - I found already smaller problems caused by aria2c now having a longer user agent)

Anyway, what we see is that there are around 1000 new factory installations per week and that's great - we can assume some do fresh installations into VMs, but the number still indicates a lot of factory users.

And 11.1 is still growing, which is also good - as 11.2 will still take some time (and that will also mean that many will not switch to 11.2 as they just found the time to update to 11.1 :)

Steve, the download statistics from download.opensuse.org is obviously a huge amount of data to go through for unique IP's. It must be a hugely difficult task as you have indicated, and I would think that the presence of any company using NAT'ed internal IP's would have an unknown impact. Just querulous, when a KDE install registers for its first update servers to be assigned, the contact and assignment is made by [Contacting Novell's Servers? - Please wait]. Also caries the hardware profile etc. and any Novel Registration if any. And with a Gnome install it goes to smolt. Do we get any other useful stats from Novell for KDE and SMOLT for Gnome that we could also use. What do we do with the hardware profile also transmitted? I only ask and I have no idea, and have not found out anyone who does know. Just thought this may be able to provide more user data for kde/gnome installs and also included NAT'ed IP downloads. There is normally only one contact made with Novell Servers for update assignment repos??? Do we learn anything from Hardware Profile info's from Novell Servers also???? Scott

But http://ktown.kde.org/~coolo/repos.png implies that the 11.1 hype is over, we reached again a limit we had before the 11.1 release of IPs accessing our servers (every IP counts only counts once for the oldest product). Then again, the traffic always goes down in summers (both the nothern and the southern hemisphere summer - some call the second summer christmas, but that is politically incorrect I guess :)

The week in march when download.o.o was down (and I miss 60 hours of logs), had only half the IPs, so this is a neat reminder that dialup users make it impossible to guess how many users there are. We see on average 5 IPs pro cookie. So there are between 80.000 and 1.000.000 11.1 users - any more concrete number is only a guess I'm afraid.

http://jspaleta.livejournal.com/42464.html claims their user base is 115% of the sum of total IPs for fedora. That again would give you 6,5 Million openSUSE 11.1 users and 9,2 Million users of 11.0 -

And live cds are still a mistery - in 8 weeks there were only 9 live installations found, but that maybe because people do not do updates in these live installations. I have no other explanation atm, but that mistery is the reason I do this 11.2 logs parsing that early.

Greetings, Stephan

Stephan Kulow wrote:

Hi,

I updated my scripts to rescan the last 8 weeks of apache logs for 11.2 data (it took less than 3 days - we're talking 15G of compressed apache that needs to be evaluated and my poor workstation is doing alot of other stuff :)

I gather by now, a feature request has been open to help with statistics which does not require such labour ad PC time and cost. If cannot find the feature request, if it exists, and I un-subscribed from this list weeks ago. If we do create a feature request, the only reliable static element to count may be the MAC address of the PC's cookies that contacts any automated counter. If we use the MAC address of a NAT'd group of PC's we only count 1PC when there could be 100 behind this one NAT'd and MAC address. To expedite this feature request, if one exists, could be please consider counting unique MAC Address of Every PC via the PC cookie. Counting IP addresses is rather useless especially if hundreds of PC's exist on any LAN that fall into the black hole of 192.168.?.? of NAT'd single IP's of the Modem/Router. I can only speak from Australia's point of view, but the only time we use a public IP Address is for any Server that requires either Public Access or Internal/Public Access and even them we use a lot of Dynamic DNS for HTTP Servers as it is so easy. In just about ever other condition we use NAT. Government, in the past, for audit purposes did use public unique IP's for the LAN. This however is slowly becoming less and less, in-favour of NAT'd IP's on the LAN with MAC Identification and MAC filtering of open DHCP LAN's and WIFI PC's. Here in Australia the only unique thing we can guarantee is the MAC address, IP's can be changed and are mostly NAT'ed having hundreds of PC's behind the Modem/Routers and an unknown number of VPN Linked PC's behind the same single NAT'd IP. Statistically speaking, I would recommend thinking alone the lines of counting PC's MAC address via the PC's cookie as the only true reliable way of presenting statistics. MAC address are the only possible, non transportable and unique to every PC in the World. IP Addresses are potential unless and misleading and I have not even mentioned DMZ LAN's with possibly hundreds of PC's having a DMZ address. I would be grateful if another could add this as a possibility to the feature request for gathering of statistics which may be more accurate and less labour intensive. Many Thanks Scott The other distortion of a PC's IP comes from any VPN link, where the VPN link is behind a single NAT'd IP and there may be hundreds of NAT'd IP's behind each VPN Link.

http://en.opensuse.org/Statistics now has preliminary 11.2 data (I will reset them when 11.2 is out, for now the goal is to test the statistics - I found already smaller problems caused by aria2c now having a longer user agent)

Anyway, what we see is that there are around 1000 new factory installations per week and that's great - we can assume some do fresh installations into VMs, but the number still indicates a lot of factory users.

And 11.1 is still growing, which is also good - as 11.2 will still take some time (and that will also mean that many will not switch to 11.2 as they just found the time to update to 11.1 :)

But http://ktown.kde.org/~coolo/repos.png implies that the 11.1 hype is over, we reached again a limit we had before the 11.1 release of IPs accessing our servers (every IP counts only counts once for the oldest product). Then again, the traffic always goes down in summers (both the nothern and the southern hemisphere summer - some call the second summer christmas, but that is politically incorrect I guess :)

The week in march when download.o.o was down (and I miss 60 hours of logs), had only half the IPs, so this is a neat reminder that dialup users make it impossible to guess how many users there are. We see on average 5 IPs pro cookie. So there are between 80.000 and 1.000.000 11.1 users - any more concrete number is only a guess I'm afraid.

http://jspaleta.livejournal.com/42464.html claims their user base is 115% of the sum of total IPs for fedora. That again would give you 6,5 Million openSUSE 11.1 users and 9,2 Million users of 11.0 -

And live cds are still a mistery - in 8 weeks there were only 9 live installations found, but that maybe because people do not do updates in these live installations. I have no other explanation atm, but that mistery is the reason I do this 11.2 logs parsing that early.

Greetings, Stephan