Mailinglist Archive: opensuse (3337 mails)

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Re: [SLE] Re: Oracle-Novell
  • From: Stephen Boddy <stephen.boddy@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
  • Date: Tue, 18 Apr 2006 12:26:32 +0100
  • Message-id: <200604181226.33159.stephen.boddy@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
On Tuesday 18 April 2006 05:03, kai wrote:
> 5. Novell is in a less-than-optimal situation. They are floundering a bit
> trying to get a foothold in the enterprise market. That shows a company
> ripe for the picking.  Novell's stock is hovering between $5 and $8 a
> share. (Aside from today's bump.) This in comparison to the leader - Red
> Hat - who probably doesn't even want to be bought. Their stock is in the
> high $20's a share, even with today's drop due to the news.

Share price is irrelevant. Market capitalisation is where you need to look.
That's how much it would "cost" to "buy" the company. In reality you would
rarely "buy" the company. At the moment you're looking at:
NOVL $2.99B
RHAT $5.10B
which suggests that although Novell share price is lower, they also have more
shares. If the number of shares were equal to Red Hat's, then Novell would be
more like $18.
Just for perspective:
ORCL $70.93B
IBM $127.96B
and our favourite old whipping post:
MSFT $277.35B

However, if Oracle were in the market, and looking to get a high profile
brand, then it's a tough call. Red Hat undoubtedly has the brand recognition,
and I'd give the PR war and general acumen points to them too. Novell have
more time in the trenches, and have weathered some fairly nasty periods. They
have (as I understand it) a good product set, and (depending on you POV) some
definite advantages when it comes to "IP" (I'm abusing that term, hence the
quotes). They would also be cheaper. For about 30 seconds after any serious
intent was seen on the part of Oracle.

Personally I'd prefer Oracle to stay out of Novell. So far Novell haven't done
anything to massively upset me. They've made a lot of the right moves, and
seem to be genuine about reinventing themselves and fighting the good fight
(OSS not religion ;-). I don't really trust Oracle to continue that state of
affairs.
--
Steve Boddy

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