On Sunday 25 May 2003 2:42 am, Curtis Rey wrote:
On Saturday 24 May 2003 08:38 pm, Fred A. Miller wrote:
http://news.ft.com/servlet/ContentServer?pagename=FT.com/StoryFT/Ful lStory& c=StoryFT&cid=1051390298276&p=1012571727085
I've said it before and I'll yet again. Follow the numbers. M$ stock value has been flat at best for some time. Just because you have stock holdings worth X$ in projected worth doesn't mean that it's really worth anything. If one does a five year chart on M$ with a linear progression it is not looking favorable and growth has been steadily declining for near 2 years now.
I used to be on a list which had an ex-MS financial person on it. And he alluded that the reason that he left was because of shady accounting practices. He thought they were going to make a big fall if discovered. Evidently they have not totally been discovered/
Also, many of it's other divisions have not done so well and since the SEC has told them to stop playing the account shell game in their reports it is evident that M$ is not immune from risk or market loss.
Now, if one looks past the market and media hype one see that despite M$' best efforts it days of growth compared to a few years ago are all but over. I really think, giving the ego in the M$ upper echelon, that they may be ill equipped to deal in a slow growth market - ah the price of size.
Also, failings in consumer confidence are not just revealed by Ballmers potential hedging on his worth. One only needs a little more that a few brain cells to rub together to weigh the reality of continued vunerabilities and the marketing M$ does about better securtiy and stability. On the security front.. well let me put it this way. If M$ didn't have the record of vunerability it has Symantic and others in similar businesses wouldn't be nearly as profitible or successful as they presently are.
Another and probably the most major problem they have in Redmond is that most of their programmers are paid (from what I understand) at a relatively low wage but are given lots of stock options. This worked like a charm in those years when they were growing at a rapid rate. However, once the growth (and stock rise) stops, the place could come apart like a house of cards... (don't we wish)
So, I expect even a higher degree of FUD and more marketing M$ as the best and only way to go media blitze. And I expect to see more SEC filings about loses in periperal division and flat to scant growth. This is a crucial time. The only really big thing M$ has to offer now is W2k3 server - and so what - it ain't selling. So the next best thing is at least 18 to 24 months out - plenty of time for a large migration to Linux and the emergence of a viable desktop.
Smile Bill and Steve, and say hi to McBride. :)
Cheers, Curtis.
-- +----------------------------------------------------------------------------+ + Bruce S. Marshall bmarsh@bmarsh.com Bellaire, MI 05/25/03 10:52 + +----------------------------------------------------------------------------+ "Our bodies are our gardens, to which our wills are gardeners." - William Shakespeare